***** Yesterday's hottest stories were "Gold's Gleam Diminishes as Price Rise Stalls," from the WSJ; WaPo's "CFTC Floats Rules Aimed at Speculation," which tied with CFTC Chairman Gensler's comments and Dubai's volume increase.
Commodity price manipulation breeding tougher regulation approach
Mineweb
UK (and European) regulators may well support possible measures being taken by the CFTC in the U.S. to reduce commodity and metal market speculation.
http://bit.ly/SanTQ
GATA Urges SEC, CFTC to Investigate Goldman Sachs' Trading Program
BUSINESS WIRE
The Gold Anti-Trust Action Committee has urged the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to investigate the computer trading program of Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that, according to a federal prosecutor, the bank acknowledges can be used to manipulate markets.
http://bit.ly/tYXyK
***** John Lothian: Which computer training program? The one named Gold Manipulator I, Gold Manipulator II, or Gold Manipulator Maximum Impact?
Damgard responds to CFTC statement
FIA.org
The Futures Industry Association today released the following statement from FIA President John Damgard regarding the statement issued by Gary Gensler, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
http://bit.ly/2AYCW6
SA mines minister says no nationalisation
miningmx.com/Reuters
South African Mineral Resources Minister Susan Shabangu told Reuters on Wednesday the country would not nationalise mines despite calls from the ruling party's allies.
http://bit.ly/1egUfh
| JLN Metals Scorecard | 7-Jul-09 |
| NYSE LIFFE US Total Volume | 8,804 |
| | |
| 100 oz. Gold Futures Volumes | |
| NYSE LIFFE US | 2,659 |
| CME/NYMEX | 80,832 |
| CME/NYMEX Open Auction | 7,861 |
| NYSE LIFFE market share | 2.91% |
| NYSE LIFFE US Electronic market share | 3.18% |
| | |
| 100 oz. Gold Futures Open Interest | |
| CME/NYMEX | 372,985 |
| NYSE LIFFE US | 3,316 |
| NYSE LIFFE US market share | 0.88% |
| | |
| Mini Gold Volume | |
| NYSE LIFFE US | 4,324 |
| CME/NYMEX miNY | 53 |
| CME/NYMEX E-mini | 63 |
| NYSE Liffe market share | 97.39% |
| | |
| 5,000 oz. Silver Futures Volume | |
| NYSE LIFFE US | 219 |
| CME/NYMEX | 16,047 |
| NYSE LIFFE US market share | 1.35% |
| | |
| Mini Silver Volume | |
| NYSE LIFFE US | 1,576 |
| CME/NYMEX miNY | 20 |
| CME/NYMEX E-mini | 0 |
| NYSE LIFFE US market share | 98.75% |
| | |
| Additional Metal Futures Volume statistics | |
| EUREX Gold Futures | 16 |
| TOCOM Gold Futures* | 47,159 |
| TOCOM Mini Gold Futures* | 21,468 |
| TOCOM Silver Futures* | 382 |
| MCX 1 Kg Gold Futures* | 39,358 |
| Dubai Gold & Commodities Exchange | 3,073 |
| * trade date July 7, 2009 |
| Precious metal ETFs | Symbol | Volume |
| ProShares Ultra Silver (ETF) | AGQ | 168,296 |
| Market Vectors Gold Miners (ETF) | GDX | 5,483,099 |
| SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) | GLD | 7,691,170 |
| ProShares UltraShort Gold (ETF) | GLL | 148,922 |
| iShares COMEX Gold Trust (ETF) | IAU | 240,328 |
| iShares Silver Trust (ETF) | SLV | 7,235,679 |
| Market Vectors Steel (ETF) | SLX | 764,321 |
| ProShares Ultra Gold (ETF) | UGL | 152,659 |
| ProShares UltraShort Silver (ETF) | ZSL | 838,536 |
| INTENTS OF 07Jul2009 FOR DELIVERY ON 09Jul2009 | | |
| 33.2 oz Gold | Issue total | Stop total |
| Fortis Clearing Americas LLC | 1 | 1 |
| MF Global Inc. | 1 | 1 |
| total | 2 | 2 |
Comex daily delivery notices - http://bit.ly/c7qtJ
Gold stocks - http://bit.ly/Z9hDW
Silver stocks - http://bit.ly/53TGn
Lead Stories
Surge in Gold, Silver Coin Sales
WSJ.com
Sales of gold and silver bullion coins were up sharply in the first half of 2009, when dealers were citing strong physical demand amid worries about other investments.
http://bit.ly/2pIteW
China Accuses Rio Staffer of Spying
WSJ.com
An employee of mining giant Rio Tinto being held in China is suspected by Beijing of espionage, the Australian government said. The development is the latest twist to the company's increasingly fraught relationship with the country that is its biggest market for iron ore.
http://bit.ly/ztMP
Copper Extends Drop on Concern About Timing of Economic Rebound
Bloomberg.com
Copper fell in New York and London as an unexpected drop in Japanese machinery orders raised concern that demand will take longer than expected to revive. Orders, an indicator of spending by companies in the next three to six months, declined 3 percent in May from April, the Cabinet Office said today in Tokyo. An unexpected decline in U.K. house prices reinforced concern that Group of Eight officials meeting in Italy have more to do to drag the global economy out of a recession.
http://bit.ly/fBtRO
China Ore Price Talks Are Still Continuing, Hebei Steel Says
Bloomberg.com
Hebei Iron & Steel Group, China’s second-biggest mill, denied a China Business News report that the nation’s steelmakers agreed to a 33 percent cut in contract iron ore prices.
http://bit.ly/3Pax52
Futures & ETF News
ETF/ETN Investors Have To Watch CFTC Speculation/Limitation Rules
24/7 Wall Street
We are witnessing a pivotal moment in investing history. After a decade of opening up all markets to the public and to more speculators with exchange traded products, some might soon be closed to speculators and investors alike.
http://bit.ly/O345c
Where the Pros Are Putting Their ETF Money
Seeking Alpha
... The Wall Street Journal’s Gregory Zuckerman recently compiled some thoughts from George Soros, John Paulson, and others on the current economic environment.
http://bit.ly/r2YhW
Short the Market with These 19 ETF Option Strategies
Seeking Alpha
As recently charted in my blog post here, I believed (and still believe) the market is due for a correction. The chart is a clear head and shoulders pattern of the S&P 500 SPDR (SPY). Some of the ways I've been hedging my portfolio, is by using the leveraged short ETFs.
http://bit.ly/TCHRa
ETFs: Not So Simple Anymore
Kiplinger.com
... Gold and other metals-based ETFs are popular inflation hedges. But when you sell your shares, they'll be taxed as collectibles, meaning a capital-gains rate of up to 28%.
http://bit.ly/18xqsg
Silver bullion funds offered by Claymore, BetaPro
Morningstar
Silver bullion is the underlying asset for new exchange-listed offerings from Claymore Investments Inc. and BetaPro Management Inc.
http://bit.ly/DZmFd
Investments
View of the Day: Cyclical recovery for metals
FT.com / Markets
Metals prices are expected to weaken in the third quarter as China completes re-stocking and its government becomes more cautious on loan growth – but Peter Hickson, analyst at UBS, expects commodity markets to benefit from a broad cyclical upswing later this year.
http://bit.ly/aWuGl
Analysts look for metals rebound; China seen key
AMM.com
Morgan Stanley Research and Standard & Poor's Ratings Services each see a glimmer of hope on the horizon for the global metals sector, with both pointing to China as the catalyst for any turnaround.
http://bit.ly/MjtkH
Inflation-boosted gold price to reach new record high, GFMS tells China
miningweekly.com
... In his presentation, GFMS chairperson Philip Klapwijk said that an increase in overall supply was expected in 2009, owing to an expected further drop in net official-sector sales being offset by a modest increase in mine production, boosted by a record high in the recycling of fabricated products.
http://bit.ly/3b0Pxx
Resource shares to take strain
miningmx.com
The share prices of the resources companies could fall dramatically over the next six months as their profits come under serious pressure.
http://bit.ly/142pLe
When platinum deals go strange
Mineweb
There have been some strange goings on in the platinum subsector, among the world's most beaten up mining equities investments over the past 12 months, no doubt with the potential of stranger things yet.
http://bit.ly/zJoDA
G-Resources's Hegarty Says Gold Price May Reach $1,500: Video
Bloomberg.com
G-Resources Group Ltd. Chief Executive Officer Owen Hegarty talks with Bloomberg's Bernard Lo about Hegarty's forecast for the price of gold.
http://bit.ly/ZOq56
Copper and Nickel to Correct says Macquarie Research
FP Trading Desk
Speculators lost their heads in the first half of the year when copper and nickel imports into China went through the roof.
http://bit.ly/wNBmW
Regulatory News
NV gold mine fined $500,000 for fatality
Yahoo! News
Federal regulators have fined Newmont Mining Corp. more than $500,000 for safety violations they say contributed to the death of a worker at an underground gold mine in Nevada.
http://bit.ly/U6S94
Legislation Seeks Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investors
Numismaster.com
Senator Mike Crapo, R-Idaho, entered a bill in the U.S. Senate entitled, "Fair Treatment for Precious Metals Investor Act. The bill seeks to amend the Internal Revenue Code so that capital gains tax treatment for precious metals investments will be comparable to that for investments in stocks, bonds and mutual funds.
http://bit.ly/sLbJZ
Production News
Xstrata, Merafe Raise Ferrochrome Output on Demand
Bloomberg.com
Xstrata Plc, the world’s biggest ferrochrome producer, and Merafe Resources Ltd. raised output of the stainless steel ingredient at their South African joint venture to 60 percent of capacity after demand strengthened.
http://bit.ly/9Sai1
Reports and Macroeconomics
Should You Bet Against the Dollar?
WSJ.com
This week's G-8 meeting in Italy has kicked off with the traditional warm-up event -- yet another debate about whether the dollar will, or should, lose its place as the world's reserve currency. This time the governments of China, Russia and Brazil all plan to raise the issue. In keeping with recent tradition, any demands that the dollar be toppled will, of course, be accompanied by soothing remarks that they are demanding no such thing.
http://bit.ly/Hus6n
Base metals prices at risk from Chinese import slowdowns - Deutsche Bank
Mineweb
Deutsche Bank strategists believe that the momentum of base metals prices during the second quarter "will stall and move into reverse" during the remainder of this year.
http://bit.ly/PWJvV
Commodities Head for Longest Drop This Year as Outlook Worsens
Bloomberg.com
Commodities headed for the longest decline this year as faltering economic conditions heightened speculation that demand will decline for raw materials from crude oil to cotton.
http://bit.ly/aJfZ3
IMF Raises Canada’s Economic Growth Outlook to 1.6% in 2010
Bloomberg.com
Canada’s economy will shrink less than previously predicted in 2009 and grow more in 2010, helped by commodity prices that have rebounded ahead of a global recovery, the International Monetary Fund said in an update to its World Economic Outlook report.
http://bit.ly/eMAsP
Yuan Deposes Dollar on China Border in Sign of Future
Bloomberg.com
Huang Xinyuan, who sells mining equipment and pesticides to customers across China’s border with Vietnam, says he no longer wants payment in U.S. dollars and prefers the yuan.
http://bit.ly/sAXqf
Miscellaneous News
G-8 leaders to receive books on Canova, gold coins
The Associated Press
... The coins, made by Belgian Luc Luycx, who designed one side of the Euro coins, are called "eurodollars," in a symbolic call for a common currency to unite Europe and the United States. They have a value of euro2,800 ($3,900) and were produced by the United Future World Currency, a group pushing the idea of a global currency.
http://bit.ly/U83wD
South African Union Backs Forming State Mine Company
Bloomberg.com
South Africa’s biggest labor union said the government should buy assets from willing sellers to create a state-owned mining company.
http://bit.ly/jYgG1
Metal Prices Will Be Key to Advance for Peru
WSJ.com
Peruvian stocks will likely continue their impressive recovery this quarter, but possibly without the significant gains of the first half of the year.
http://bit.ly/pTqT8
SA gold mining firms improve wage offer
miningweekly.com
No deal has yet been reached in the wage negotiations between South African gold companies and labour unions, which continued on Tuesday.
http://bit.ly/wS6e9
AngloGold, Gold Fields, Harmony Pay Offers Rejected
Bloomberg.com
South African labor unions rejected improved pay offers from AngloGold Ashanti Ltd., Gold Fields Ltd. and Harmony Gold Mining Co., Africa’s biggest producers of the metal, moving the industry closer to a strike.
http://bit.ly/qgy9q
Physicals & Company News
Aluminum Bellwether Only: Alcoa's Results
WSJ.com
Investors tempted to draw broad conclusions about commodity demand from Alcoa's earnings report should resist. The aluminum maker reports second-quarter results Wednesday afternoon, marking the unofficial kickoff of earnings season.
http://bit.ly/SI84o
Alcoa May Show Third Straight Loss on Aluminum Prices
Bloomberg.com
Alcoa Inc., the largest U.S. aluminum producer, may report its third consecutive quarterly loss today as lower demand from automakers and the construction industry keeps the metal at about half of last year’s prices.
http://bit.ly/TpHOx
Grupo Mexico Offers Asarco Creditors $1.46 Billion
Bloomberg.com
Grupo Mexico SAB agreed to pay $1.46 billion in cash plus a $280 million note to regain control of its bankrupt U.S. copper miner Asarco LLC, the company said in court papers.
http://bit.ly/uu2Np
Merged Anglo-Xstrata could compete ‘toe-to-toe with BHP Billiton on JSE’
miningweekly.com
The proposed merger of Anglo American and Xstrata would enable the combined entity to compete “toe-to-toe with BHP Billiton globally and on the JSE" as well as any new entrant that might arise out of China or Russia, Xstrata GM strategy and corporate affairs Thras Moraitis said on Wednesday.
http://bit.ly/1GOJyJ
Xstrata May List in Johannesburg After Anglo Merger
Bloomberg.com
Xstrata Plc will consider trading its shares on Johannesburg’s stock exchange if it merges with Anglo American Plc, said Thras Moraitis, Xstrata’s executive general manager of strategy.
http://bit.ly/11Y3mq
South Africa ‘Regrets’ Allowing Anglo’s London Move
Bloomberg.com
South Africa’s government regrets allowing Anglo American Plc to move its headquarters to London because the company was built into what it is today from assets in the country, Mines Minister Susan Shabangu said.
http://bit.ly/5AKTe
Xstrata: Bid changed Anglo forever
miningmx.com
A PROPOSED merger of equals between Xstrata and Anglo American had changed the South African mining group forever, said Thras Moraitis, executive GM of Xstrata’s group strategy and corporate affairs.
http://bit.ly/yiyCC
Xstrata Says Australian Study Shows Low Lead Risk in River
Bloomberg.com
Xstrata Plc, the world’s fourth- largest copper producer, said a study into alleged lead contamination of a river near its Mt. Isa mine in Australia showed a low level of risk to human health.
http://bit.ly/j2y58
Glencore, Trafigura Gain From Doe Run Peru Smelter Shutdown
Bloomberg.com
Glencore International AG, the world’s biggest commodities trader, and Trafigura Beheer BV are benefiting as suppliers of Doe Run Peru’s shut lead and zinc smelter seek international traders to sell their concentrates.
http://bit.ly/MLNp0
ArcelorMittal Talks to Lenders About Covenant Waiver
WSJ.com
ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, is talking to its lenders about a covenant waiver for its loan facilities to give the company greater flexibility should trading conditions deteriorate further, said people familiar with the situation Wednesday.
http://bit.ly/nuvoC
China National Gold Says Metal Prices Deter IPO Plan
Bloomberg.com
China National Gold Group Corp., owner of the country’s largest gold deposit, probably won’t sell shares in its base-metals unit this year after low prices depressed profits.
http://bit.ly/Xvoty
India to Expedite Posco’s Iron Ore Mining License
Bloomberg.com
India will speed up the process of granting Posco an iron-ore mining license, seeking to end a four-year wait by the steelmaker to secure resources for its planned $12 billion venture in the country.
http://bit.ly/9C1LY
Rosemont Copper: Tucson region to reap windfall from mine operation
www.azstarnet.com
Billions of dollars of economic benefits will flow annually to Pima County if the proposed Rosemont mine is approved and built as planned, a new study financed by the mine’s copper company says.
http://bit.ly/L7p4H
Japan Hot Coil Export Price to Hit US$ 500/t to South Korea
Japan Metal Bulletin
Japanese integrated steel makers are expected to conclude hot rolled coil export price negotiation with South Korean rerollers at around FOB US$ 500 per tonne for July-September shipment.
http://bit.ly/Jf8ny
Royal Bafokeng gets go-ahead to lift stake in Rasimone Platinum
miningweekly.com
Royal Bafokeng Resources would now be allowed to increase its shareholding in the Bafokeng Rasimone Platinum Mine (BRPM) to 67%, following an unconditional approval of the transaction by the Competition Tribunal.
http://bit.ly/10kMvm
Zambia's Lumwana sees copper output below target
Reuters
Zambia's Lumwana Mining Co. Ltd, a unit of Australia's Equinox Minerals Ltd (EQN.TO) (EQN.AX), said on Wednesday annual copper output will be much lower than the projected 170,000 tonnes due to production setbacks.
http://bit.ly/FpyzH
SAIL cuts prices by up to Rs 2,000 a tonne
The Times of India
The country's largest steel maker, SAIL, today said it has cut prices of its long products - used primarily in construction - by Rs 1,500-2,000 per tonne and may further lower the rates if the situation so warrants.
http://bit.ly/ZuyBo
